Standard analysis of the impact of some factors related to climate change on the Egyptian food production index
Abstract: Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume Thirty-One, Issue Four, 2021, 1199-1208.
There is no doubt that climate change negatively affects economic growth rates and thus increases poverty rates, especially in developing countries, as these countries bear most of the damage caused by global warming. Hence, international organizations concerned with the environment have sounded alarm bells to warn of the deterioration of the climate, and to alert the world that this deterioration could have horrific repercussions as a result of the increase in carbon emissions. Although more than 5 decades have passed since the beginning of official international agreements, the rates of desertification and drought, and then the rates of poverty and hunger, are increasing in severity, especially in developing countries, as a result of greenhouse gases. Proceeding from the problem, the research seeks to study the impact of the international agreements on climate by identifying the most important provisions of the agreements, determining the role of Egypt in these international agreements, and studying the impact of these agreements on Egypt through a quadripartite analysis. Finally, studying the impact of climate change on the Egyptian food index.
By studying the degree of co-integration between the model variables represented in the food production index during the period (1980 - 2020), total greenhouse gas emissions, rainfall rate, average temperature, production index, livestock production index, it was found that there is an integration relationship between the variables. We reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that there is a correlation for cointegration.
By estimating the regression relationship using the LS model, it was found that there is an inverse relationship between the food production index and each of the total greenhouse gas emissions, rainfall rate, average temperature, which is consistent with the economic logic, where the food production index decreases by a statistically significant percentage by about 4%, 0.1% , 3% increase in greenhouse gas emissions, rainfall rate, average temperature by 10%, respectively.
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Publication year 2021
Pages 1199-1208
Availability location https://meae.journals.ekb.eg/article_223827_16186fec587c26fbece6c58f2c7488f7.pdf
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Organization Name
serial title المجلة المصرية للاقتصاد الزراعي
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Author(s) from ARC
External authors (outside ARC)
    محمد علي فهيم مركز معلومات تغير المناخ
Publication Type Journal
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